Covid and flu: Fears in Wales of hard winter in worst case

More than a quarter of Welsh hospital beds could be taken up by patients with Covid, flu and other respiratory illnesses at the winter peak, according to latest predictions from scientists.

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A "worst case" scenario suggests 2,750 hospital beds could be full.

Health Minister Eluned Morgan, unveiling her winter plan, said it was "never too late to be vaccinated".

Last winter the UK escaped the typical flu season, thanks to the high prevalence of mask wearing.

But modelling by Welsh government scientists suggests in a "worst case" scenario that Covid, flu and other respiratory conditions could account for 2,750 hospital beds - or 28% of total capacity at the peak.

The "most likely" scenario peaks at about 1,400 occupied beds, or 14% capacity.

Covid admissions are "most likely" to peak at 100 patients in December, according to the scientific report.

"It is still possible we may see a relatively quiet winter in terms of pressures due to influenza, Covid and other respiratory viruses - however "hope" is not a good planning strategy," the report says.

Fiona Kinghorn, public health director at Cardiff and Vale health board, fears "we"re in for a hard winter" and said cases were already starting to rise.

But a simultaneous peak in flu and Covid cases is something Ms Kinghorn said she was "extremely worried about".

She added: "It"s very difficult to predict the trend but it"s likely that as we get into November we"ll start to get much higher numbers of cases.